A useful explanation of how to test mining assumptions without relying on one forecast must connect terminology with evidence. Here, the evidence is organized around base case, adverse case and sensitivity table.
An economics model is only as clear as its boundary. State whether the result is gross revenue, operating margin or a full capital-cost calculation, and keep BTC output separate from currency-price movement.
Base Case
Use base case as a testable input, not a general description. Record what produced the value, the interval it covers and any exclusions. Compare the record with adverse case only after both use compatible boundaries; otherwise the apparent difference may come from definitions rather than performance.
- Evidence: a dated record for base case.
- Cross-check: compare it with adverse case.
- Review trigger: repeat the check after a material change affecting base case.
Adverse Case
Treat adverse case as one layer of the system. Ask who controls it, how often it changes and which record can verify it. Its connection to sensitivity table should be explained explicitly, because two correlated values do not automatically prove that one caused the other.
- Evidence: a dated record for adverse case.
- Cross-check: compare it with sensitivity table.
- Review trigger: repeat the check after a material change affecting adverse case.
Sensitivity Table
Evaluate sensitivity table with a small evidence chain: source, timestamp, unit, boundary and calculation. Follow the same chain for base case. This prevents a precise-looking result from combining incompatible observations and makes future updates less dependent on undocumented assumptions.
- Evidence: a dated record for sensitivity table.
- Cross-check: compare it with base case.
- Review trigger: repeat the check after a material change affecting sensitivity table.
How to test mining assumptions without relying on one forecast: evaluation sequence
- Write the exact decision involving base case.
- Collect adverse case using the same observation period.
- Test how the conclusion changes when sensitivity table moves.
- Save the source values, conversions and date of review.
Reference for Mining Economics
Verify the underlying context with Bitcoin network difficulty data. For values that change over time, use a current source and record its retrieval date.
